Archived Abstracts
Predicting the Actions of the Federal Reserve
Location
Room 214, Schewel Hall
Access Type
Campus Access Only
Entry Number
30
Start Date
4-8-2020 11:30 AM
End Date
4-8-2020 11:45 AM
Department
Economics
Abstract
This thesis examines various economic indicators to select those that are the most significant in a predictive model of the Effective Federal Funds Rate. Three distinguished statistical models were built to show how monetary policy changed over time. These three models frame the last economic downturns in the United States; the Tech Bubble, the Housing Bubble, and the Great Recession. Many iterations of statistical regressions were ran in order to achieve the final three models that highlight variables with the highest levels of significance. It is important to note the economic data has high levels of serial and autocorrelation, and that these issues detract from the creation of a perfect statistical model. However, the results from the regressions showed that the Federal Reserve has altered the basis for policy over the last three recessionary periods. They tend to alter the weights of certain economic variables over others as time has progressed.
Faculty Mentor(s)
Dr. Mark Ledbetter Dr. Jessica Scheld Dr. Edward DeClair
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Predicting the Actions of the Federal Reserve
Room 214, Schewel Hall
This thesis examines various economic indicators to select those that are the most significant in a predictive model of the Effective Federal Funds Rate. Three distinguished statistical models were built to show how monetary policy changed over time. These three models frame the last economic downturns in the United States; the Tech Bubble, the Housing Bubble, and the Great Recession. Many iterations of statistical regressions were ran in order to achieve the final three models that highlight variables with the highest levels of significance. It is important to note the economic data has high levels of serial and autocorrelation, and that these issues detract from the creation of a perfect statistical model. However, the results from the regressions showed that the Federal Reserve has altered the basis for policy over the last three recessionary periods. They tend to alter the weights of certain economic variables over others as time has progressed.